Economic experts have warned the Government faces a challenge in meeting its new jobs target if it restricts migration, and even if it does deliver on its pledge, Australians may not be the ones to benefit.

​Prime Minister Scott Morrison today delivered a pre-election promise in Brisbane to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years.

It follows a similar pledge by Tony Abbott prior to the 2013 election to create 1 million jobs by 2018.

Peter McDonald, Emeritus Professor of Demography at ANU's Crawford School of Public Policy, said it was an "achievable" target and that a recent projection of labour market demand by Victoria University had already earmarked a similar level of demand.

But he also noted migration was the largest contributor to the growth in employment numbers in Australia since 2013, ahead of the growing trend for older Australians to stay in work.

The permanent migration program was reduced from around 190,000 to just above 160,000 in the past two years.

​Mr Morrison revealed last year it's likely the intake would remain at this new, lower level.

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson said his firm forecasted that, at this stage, jobs growth would fall short of the Government's 2023 target.

"You get, basically, growth in jobs pretty much anyway — over time, there are more Australians, that typically means more jobs, but it does get more complicated than that," Mr Richardson said.

"An ageing population means more people are retiring, that makes it harder.

"The migration debate — if it means winding back the number of migrants — that also makes it harder."
​
The Department of Jobs' Employment Outlook, released last year, projects employment to increase by 886,100 over the five years to May 2023.

​Migration and jobs growth
Mr Richardson said the ratio of new skilled adult migrants to jobs growth was "pretty much one to one", despite community concerns over migration fuelled by "barbecue logic".

"People think, 'well if migrants arrive, surely they're taking jobs and if other things are equal, that means less jobs for everyone else'," he said.

​"If somebody puts up a hand to take a job — a migrant, a married woman, a Martian — they get the job, they earn the income, spend the income, then create the next job."

Professor McDonald said if the Government restricted permanent migration, the employees needed by Australian businesses would not come from the ranks of the local unemployed.

"If labour demand is strong, and permanent migration is not filling the demand, then it will come from temporary migration or New Zealanders," he said.

A reduction in immigration, he argues, would not necessarily lead to more jobs for Australians.
"There's about 12 per cent, say, of prime age, potential workers who are not employed, and it's been that figure for 20 years.

​We've had a lot of programs, spent a lot of money over that 20 year period, but that 12 per cent has not shifted at all.

​"I think we'll need to be looking at something much more radical than what we've been doing."

Mr Morrison told ABC this morning that the focus in employment growth over the next five years will be on full-time jobs.
"They'll be full-time, and that's been our record over the last five years," he said.
​
The majority of the 1.14 million jobs created between September 2013 and September 2018 were full-time, although more than half a million were part-time.

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The UNHCR withdrew its referral for Ms Alqunon to be resettled in Australia because Canberra was taking too long to decide on her asylum.

Ms Alqunun went to the Australian embassy in Bangkok on Wednesday and completed the visa application.
But Australian officials confirmed to the ABC that her case was still being processed late on Friday.

There was growing concern within the UNHCR over Ms Alqunun's security as she remained in Bangkok.

With these security fears in mind, she was taken to the Canadian embassy in Bangkok on Friday morning. Her visa was processed within several hours and she was booked on a flight to Canada in the afternoon.

"When referring cases with specific vulnerabilities who need immediate resettlement, we attach great importance to the speed at which countries consider and process cases," a UNHCR spokesperson in Bangkok told AP in an email reply on condition of anonymity.
​
Canada's ambassador had seen her off at the airport, where Ms Alqunun thanked everyone for helping her. She plans to start learning more English.

​Too tired to take questions
Her situation has highlighted the cause of women's rights in Saudi Arabia, where several women fleeing abuse by their families have been caught trying to seek asylum abroad in recent years and returned home.

Ms Freeland said Ms Alqunun preferred not to take questions on Saturday.

"It was a pleasure for me this morning to welcome her to her new home," Ms Freeland said.

​"She is obviously very tired after a long journey and she preferred to go and get settled. But it was Rahaf's choice to come out and say hello to Canadians.

​"She wanted Canadians to see that she's here, that she's well and that she's very happy to be in her new home."

Ms Freeland said Ms Alqunun commented about the cold weather and she responded that it gets warmer in Canada.

Ms Alqunun flew to Toronto via Seoul, South Korea, according to Chief Surachate.
​
Ms Alqunun tweeted two pictures from her plane seat — one with what appears to be a glass of wine and her passport and another holding her passport while on the plane with the hashtag "I did it" and the emojis showing plane, hearts and wine glass.

Canada's relationship with Saudi Arabia already strainedCanada's decision to grant her asylum could further upset the country's relations with Saudi Arabia.


In August, Saudi Arabia expelled Canada's ambassador to the kingdom and withdrew its own ambassador after Canada's Foreign Ministry tweeted support for women's right activists who had been arrested.


The Saudis also sold Canadian investments and ordered their citizens studying in Canada to leave.

​No country, including the US, spoke out publicly in support of Canada in that spat with the Saudis.

Ms Freeland did not address what Ms Alqunun's case would mean to Saudi relations.

"Canada believes very strongly in standing up for human rights throughout the world. We believe very strongly that woman's rights are human rights," Ms Freeland said.

There was no immediate Saudi Government reaction, nor any mention of her arrival in state media.

​Ms Freeland said the UN refugee agency found she was in a dangerous situation in Thailand and that Canada is glad they were able to act quickly to offer her refuge.

Ms Alqunun's father arrived in Bangkok on Tuesday, but his daughter refused to meet with him.

The office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees welcomed Canada's decision.
​
"The quick actions over the past week of the Government of Thailand in providing temporary refuge and facilitating refugee status determination by UNHCR, and of the Government of Canada in offering emergency resettlement to Ms Alqunun and arranging her travel were key to the successful resolution of this case," the agency said in a statement.

Ms Alqunun was stopped on January 5 at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport by immigration police who denied her entry and seized her passport.

She barricaded herself in an airport hotel room where her social media campaign got enough public and diplomatic support that Thai officials admitted her temporarily under the protection of UN officials, who granted her refugee status on Wednesday.

Chief Surachate said her father — whose name has not been released — denied physically abusing Ms Alqunun or trying to force her into an arranged marriage, which were among the reasons she gave for her flight.

He said Ms Alqunun's father wanted his daughter back but respected her decision.

"He has 10 children. He said the daughter might feel neglected sometimes," Chief Surachate said.

Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch, cited Ms Alqunun's "courage and perseverance".
​
"This is so much a victory for everyone who cares about respecting and promoting women's rights, valuing the independence of youth to forge their own way, and demanding governments operate in the light and not darkness," he said in a statement.
AP/ABC

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The minister tasked by the Prime Minister to "bust" congestion has massively inflated the number of skilled migrants moving to Melbourne and Sydney.

The mistaken "fact", as Cities Minister Alan Tudge described it, has been used as a central justification for a plan to draw more migrants to the regions.

Regional migration is part of a plan from the Government to address congestion that also includes spending more on infrastructure and coordinating better with local authorities.

But the latest Migration Program Report actually shows a decrease in the number of skilled migrants intending to live in New South Wales and Victoria.

​The controversial claim made by Mr Tudge was that 87 per cent of skilled migrants go to Sydney and Melbourne.
It was first used in newspaper reports in August attributed to the Department of Home Affairs that quoted Mr Tudge.

The figure was subsequently used by the Minister in a prominent speech setting out the Government's plan to draw more migrants from cities to regions.

​"The fact is that 87 per cent of all skilled migrants are going to Sydney and Melbourne, and nearly all of the humanitarian intake," he told the Menzies Research Centre in October.

"We want to have a more even distribution."
When contacted by the ABC, Mr Tudge's office clarified the figure. In a statement a spokesperson said: "Eighty-Seven per cent of skilled migrants go to Sydney, Melbourne and other capital cities."
The discrepancy is significant according to other available information.

The 2017-18 Migration Program Report released at the end of October showed 57 per cent of migrants intended to live in New South Wales or Victoria.
​
That's a decrease of two percentage points compared to the previous year.

Migrants may not accurately report their intended residence or may subsequently change their minds and move to Sydney and Melbourne.
​
However, the true share of skilled migrants moving to Australia's two largest cities is likely to be closer to 57 per cent than 87 per cent.

​Regional visa on the Government's radar

Mr Tudge still maintains the need to address congestion in Australia's biggest centres, citing population growth of between 2 and 3 per cent in Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland, driven mostly by migration.

"This growth in Sydney and Melbourne is putting extraordinary pressure on infrastructure and pushing congestion to record levels," his spokesperson said.
​
"At the same time, many regional areas are crying out for more people to address skill needs, boost local economies and strengthen local communities."

However Migration Institute of Australia national president John Hourigan criticised the Government's handling of existing regional schemes, and said it needed someone with the expertise, "to turn the rhetoric into substance and make regionalisation of the immigration program happen".

"If the Government had a real commitment to regionalising the immigration program, it would commit sufficient resources to ensuing that existing applications were finalised within short timeframes," he said.

An ABC investigation last month found regional migration was at its lowest level since 2008-09, even as the Government talked up a renewed regional push.

Labor immigration spokesman Shayne Neumann said the Liberal Party was "all talk and no substance" on migration policy.
​
"Under the Liberals, processing times for regional visas — such as the Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme — have ballooned out of control and it can take over two years to have these visas processed," he said.

​"This prevents migrants from resettling in regional areas, even when they want to."
But Mr Tudge was adamant "unprecedented" growth in Australia's biggest urban areas was prompting a policy refresh.

"As part of the Coalition's population plan, visa incentives will be used to encourage more migration to regional and low-growth areas that want to grow," his spokesperson said.

A five-year requirement for migrants to remain in regions has been discussed.
​
The Government is expected to announce its population and migration plan before the 2019 election.

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